Looking at COVID-19 trends with creator of the BamaTracker website
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Checking in on COVID-19 trends

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David Marconnet is a Huntsville software developer and runs BamaTracker on the side. We first introduced you to him a few months ago. He helps break down all the data so people can look at certain graphs and trends.

Probably the first thing everyone is interested in is if the statewide mask order is working. The Alabama statewide order has been in place for more than two weeks now and the Madison County order has been for more than three weeks.

In the recent weeks, we are seeing ADPH report fewer daily cases but, at the same time, we’re also seeing fewer tests reported.

“Today my answer would be it’s still too early to tell, just because there’s a number of days before you have symptoms, a number of days you’re having to wait to get your tests results back to you and then how many days before that number goes to the health department?” Marconnet said.

”At that state level, the hospitalizations chart in the last week has started to level off and if that continues that is a really good trend, because then we are not seeing more patients coming into the hospital than were released,” he said. “For the past few weeks prior to the mask mandate that chart was steadily increasing.”

Increase in cases in younger age group

The ADPH divides all COVID-19 cases in Alabama into five age groups, 0-4, 5-24, 25-49, 50-64 and 65 and older. Marconnet said these are pretty large groups, but there is still a clear pattern.

That jump catches the age group up with the 50-64 group, which sits at nearly 17,000 overall cases as well.

“In the last few weeks the number of positive cases aged 5-24 has either passed or been really close to the number of cases aged 50-64, so more and more people at that young age are coming back positive,” Marconnet said.

However, both the 5-24 and 50-64 age categories come nowhere near the 25-49 category. As of Thursday, July 31, more then 34,000 Alabamians in that age group have been positive for coronavirus.

This also brings up another important way to look at the data, becuase of inconsistencies in day-to-day reporting, Marconnet said you need to look at 7 day and 14 day averages to get the most accurate look at the data.

“It’s one way I can give back and help people make sense of the data, that’s been really rewarding,” Marconnet said.

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